Inserção Comercial Setorial e Competitividade na Argentina: Uma Análise sobre a Possibilidade de Desindustrialização da Economia

Autor:Michael Gonçalves da Silva/Clésio Lourenço Xavier/Vanessa Siqueira Peres da Silva
Cargo:Economist at the Federal University of Santa Maria. PhD Program Graduate in Economics from the Federal University of Uberlândia/Doctor, Associate Professor at the Federal University of Uberlândia and Researcher Productivity CNPq/Master, Assistant Professor at the Federal University of Santa Maria. PhD Student Graduate in Statistics and ...

Em razão da alta demanda mundial de bens intensivos em recursos naturais, nos anos recentes, este artigo objetiva averiguar, por meio da análise da balança comercial, como seu deu a inserção comercial da Argentina entre os anos 2000-2011. Usando os critérios de agregação setorial proposta pela Organização para a Cooperação e o Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE), quanto à classificação de... (ver resumo completo)


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1. Introduction

The growing demand for industrial goods not in the 2000s, due to the growth of the economies of the east, has raised a number of questions about the form of the other emerging commercial insertion. In this context, the issue of de-industrialization of these economies has gained more space, since the high-technology sectors have lost ground in the export to non-industrial sectors.

Thus, when considering the analysis of trade integration, you can see which sectors, classified according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), grew, or not, between the years in question. The results may show the involvement of industry in international trade, contributing to check for evidence of de industrialization of the economy.

The objective of this paper is to discuss about the evidence of deindustrialization process of the Argentine economy vis-à-vis their integration into international trade.

The research will be literature and empirical analysis with data from international trade. The research is qualitative technique, imprint explanatory. The database used is that of SITC UN/UNCTAD to generate disaggregated data to three digits, in the recent period.

The paper is structured as follows: in addition to this introductory section, other four sections will be covered.

An initial review of the theories of trade and international integration, the following will be a brief discussion about the deindustrialization of the economy, then we discuss some indicators of the country and, ultimately, international trade data will be disaggregated and re-aggregated using the SITC to OECD proposal of sectoral aggregation, obtaining thus business performance information. The final remarks expose a summary of results and conclusions.

2. Commercial integration: A brief reflection of theories of international trade

Regarding International Trade David Ricardo in his theory of comparative advantage states that countries should produce what present higher relative productivity. In the Ricardian model of trade, the differences between countries with respect to relative prices, are due to differences between the demands of labor. As these requirements are contained in the Ricardian model, the costs of labor are too. Therefore, demand conditions do not determine the pattern of trade in the case of two countries and two goods.

DAVIS (1996) argues that the theorem of Stolper and Samuelson1 to become observable in empirical work should have as a reference not only the factor endowments of

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a country in relation to the rest of the world, but should still relativize the appropriations of a country only in comparison with other countries which have similar allocations. These groups to identify the author uses the concept of cone diversification. He explains that the factor endowments between countries restrain the equality of factor prices.

CIMOLI (1988) shows that the pattern of trade measured based on trade flows can be assessed according to the process of technological convergence and divergence. That is, the innovation process is responsible for the technological divergence observed between countries, and imitation and diffusion are responsible for the convergence between them. As innovations arise, the country can gain through Ricardian rents due to the process of technological divergence, which gives the setting conducive to economic growth, depending on the degree and persistence of its divergence. Already in countries converge technologically, the Ricardian rents tend to disappear.

CANUTO (1998) presents a theoretical model of the interaction between trade and growth with foreign exchange constraint, in which specialization patterns, structures associated with productive sectors of two different countries, play a fundamental role, since the sectoral dynamics differentiated relation to technological innovation and imitation (allied to specific income elasticities of demand and prices of each sector) affect economic growth. The model proposed by this author believes that the growing trade between North-South is given by the technological gaps and the product cycle of Vernon2. It is the variability in patterns of specialization of countries that differentiates your model.

So to the author, the model consists based on the following considerations: productivity changes become specific to sectors, and no more to countries; nominal wages are indexed to average increases in productivity; import demand and export, similar Keynesian models of growth with foreign exchange restrictions3; allow up negative trade balances by net inflows in the capital account. Thus, the intensification of technological innovation is responsible for the divergence between North and South The higher the level of innovation found in the northern countries the greater the divergence in specialization patterns of countries, the faster the process occurs imitation and diffusion innovations faster the process of divergence will lead to the convergence between the countries.

CURADO and FERNÁNDEZ (2011) analyze the pattern of trade specialization Argentina between 1990 and 2010. Their results were compared with Brazil while in the second there is a process of (re) insourcing and reduction of technological intensity of exports, the first is an increase in industrial exports with increased participation of the medium-and high-tech exports fall Low technology.

XAVIER (2001) argues that Keynesian literature indicates that differences in income elasticity and price elasticity of exports and imports are specific to countries and

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constrain economic growth for the country, as can be seen in THIRLWALL (l979) and MCCOMBIE and THIRLWALL (1994).

THIRLWALL (1979) states that in a situation of stability in the real exchange rate and the economy functioning below full capacity occupation, the reason for the growth rate of household income relative to income from the rest of the world is conditioned by reason of income elasticity of demand for exports on the income elasticity of demand for imports. This relationship is known as “Thirlwall’s Law”: the rate of long-term growth of an economy is given by the rate of long-term growth of its exports divided by the long-run elasticity of demand for imports.

To MCCOMBIE and THIRLWALL (1994) is that there is also a priori reasons to expect at least a degree of exogeneity of income elasticities, rather than its complete incorporation by the process of economic growth: the endowment of natural resources, the presence of path dependence and the degree of...

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