Of Cultural Backlash and Economic Insecurity in the 2016 American Presidential Election
| Autor | Paul Christopher Manuel |
| Cargo | Professor na American University, Washington |
| Páginas | 212-227 |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7984.2017v16n36p212
212 212 – 227
Of Cultural Backlash and Economic
Insecurity in the 2016 American
Presidential Election
Paul Christopher Manuel1
Abstract
Given the strong support of evangelical Christian voters to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential
campaign, many have wondered how, exactly, the pro-religious Trump campaign managed to
prevail in an increasingly secular society. This article considers two conceptual models, offered
by Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris, to bring some understanding to the Trump phenomena:
the economic insecurity perspective and the cultural backlash thesis. Each will be considered in
terms of three related and interlocking sets of issue clusters: the overall secular direction of the
American population, the rural-urban cleavage, and empathy for the forgotten man and woman.
Keywords: Donald Trump. Cultural backlash. Economic insecurity. Rural-urban cleavage.
Empathy. Forgotten man and woman.
Introduction
In the sixty-seven years since the election of John F. Kennedy, America’s rst
and thus far only Roman Catholic president, there has been a steady decline
of religious aliation among Americans. And yet, given the strong support of
evangelical Christian voters to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign,
many have wondered how, exactly, the pro-religious Trump campaign managed
to prevail in an increasingly secular society.2 at is not an easy question to answer.
1 Professor na American University, Washington D.C. (EUA). Bolsista de investigação no Berkley Center for
Religion, Peace and World Affairs atGeorgetown University, Washington D.C.
2 The 2016 Republican Platform promises to defend religious liberty and traditional values, at <https://prod-
-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf>. In an
insightful article following the election, BBC reporter Anthony Zurcher usefully identifies five key factors to the
Trump victory. First, the high turn-out of the pro-Trump, so-called “white wave” – working-class, low educated,
white people – played a role. Second, the “Teflon Donald” effect enabled him overcome a series of controversies
which would have probably ended other presidential campaigns. Third, Trump’s anti-Washington elite outsi-
der insurgency approach appealed to many voters. Fourth, the surprise announcement by FBI director James
Política & Sociedade - Florianópolis - Vol. 16 - Nº 36 - Maio./Ago. de 2017
213212 – 227
Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris (2016, p. 1) have recently oered
two conceptual models aimed to bring some understanding to the Trump
phenomena, as well as the success of populist movements elsewhere: the
economic insecurity perspective emphasizes the consequences of profound
changes transforming the workforce and society in post-industrial economies,
and the cultural backlash thesis suggests the Trump victory may be best
understood as a reaction against elite-driven secularization and progressive
value change.3 is article will consider both of these explanations in terms of
three related and interlocking sets of issue clusters: the overall secular direction
of the American population, the rural-urban cleavage, and empathy for the
forgotten man and woman. We will examine each of these in turn.
1 The Secular Direction of the American Population
At the Values Voters Summit at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington,
D.C. on September 9, 2016, Donald Trump promised that, if elected, “it will
be our faith in God, in his teachings, in each other that will lead us back to
unity”. However, per recent data by the Gallup polling agency, Americans
appear to be less religious in 2016 than was the case earlier. ey may be
moving in either a “secular” direction, or at least in a “non-aliated” religious
world view.
Let’s take a look at the secular direction of American society. Table 1
details the religious preference of Americans from 1956 to 2016. e self-
identied Christian population, including Protestant and Roman Catholic,
has dropped 26 points over the last sixty years; from 96 percent of the total
American population in 1956 to 69 percent in 2016. at signicant drop
Comey a few weeks before the election that the agency reopened its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private
email server cast a shadow over her authenticity and truthfulness. Fifth, Trump’s unconventional political
instincts were spot-on, including holding massive rallies in the democratic strongholds of Michigan, Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania. Other reasons offered for the Trump victory include a poorly-run Clinton campaign, and
possible Russian interference. Combined, these provide insight on what happened. See <http://www.bbc.com/
news/election-us-2016-37918303>.
3 This paper was also presented at the roundtable “Rage against the Machine: Populist Politics in the U.S.,
Europe and Latin America”, 2 September 2016, at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Asso-
ciation, Philadelphia. Inglehart and Norris find more convincing data to support the cultural backlash theory,
but both models hold explanatory power. The electoral outcome certainly ran contrary to the expectations of
most academics and professional pollsters.
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